August 15, 2019
1. Greater Affluence
Money gives people options.
If your church is at all engaging the middle class, the upper middle
class, or a suburban demographic, an interesting trend is developing.
The middle class is shrinking, but as this New York Times report shows, it’s shrinking (in part) because more of the middle class is becoming upper class. Both US and Canadian personal disposable incomes are at all time highs.
There are simply more affluent people than there were decades ago,
which may in part explain why so many “average’ people indulge their
obsessions with granite counter tops, designer homes and decent cars,
even without being mega-wealthy.
Naturally, this leaves a huge theological void about ministry to and
with the poor, but it helps explain what’s actually happening in the
suburbs and increasingly with the re-urbanization of many cities as the
affluent move back downtown. Please…I’m not arguing things should be this way. I’m simply showing that this seems to be what’s happening.
And again…people with money have options. Technology options. Travel
options. Options for their kids. And, arguably, that affluence may be
one of the factors moving them further away from a committed engagement
to the mission of the local church. It’s perhaps fuelling some of the
reasons outlined below.
2. Higher focus on Kids’ Activities
A growing number of kids are playing sports. And a growing number of kids are playing on teams that require travel.
Many of those sports happen on weekends. And affluent parents are choosing sports over church.
It’s as simple as that. A growing number of kids play sports and a growing number of parents choose sports over church.
3. More Travel
Despite a wobbly economy, travel is on the rise, both for business and pleasure.
More and more families of various ages travel for leisure, even if
it’s just out of town to go camping or to a friend’s place for the
weekend or a weekend at the lake.
And when people are out of town, they tend to not be in church.
4. Blended and Single Parent Families
Fortunately, more and more blended families and single parent families are finding a home in church.
So how does this translate into attendance patterns?
Church leaders need to remember that when custody is shared in a
family situation, ‘perfect’ attendance for a kid or teen might be 26
Sundays a year.
Similarly, while the affluent might not be in church because of access
to reliable transportation, single parents (who, not always, but often,
struggle more financially) might not be in church because they lack access to reliable transportation.
So here’s the strange twist. People who have a car are often not in church because they have a car. People who want to be in church are often not in church because they don’t have a car or because it’s not their ‘weekend’ for church.
Sadly, people who want to get to church simply can’t.
By the way, I lead a church that virtually requires a vehicle to get there. I love how we often see people with reliable transportation helping out those who don’t have a vehicle. That’s at least a partial remedy to this problem. In a shared custody family, perfect attendance for a child or teen might be 26 Sundays a year.
5. Online Options
Many churches have created a social media presence and many podcast their messages like we do at Connexus. Churches are also launching online campuses that bring the entire service to you on your phone, tablet or TV.
There are pros and cons to online church (I outline 7 here) and there’s no doubt that churches with a strong online presence have seen it impact physical attendance.
But whether or not your church has online options doesn’t make the
issue go away. Anyone who attends your church has free access to any
online ministry of any church.
Online church is here to stay, whether you participate or not. Online church is here to stay whether you participate or not.
6. The Cultural Disappearance of Guilt
When I grew up, I felt guilty about not being in church on a Sunday.
The number of people who feel guilty about not being in church on Sunday shrinks daily.
I regularly meet people all the time who haven’t been in months but LOVE our church.
If you’re relying on guilt as a motivator, you need a new strategy. (Well, honestly, you’ve always needed a new strategy…) If you’re relying on guilt as a motivator to get people to church, you need a new strategy.
7. Self-directed Spirituality
People are looking less to churches and leaders to help them grow spiritually, and more to other options.
We live in a era in which no parent makes a visit to a doctor’s
office without having first googled the symptoms of a child’s illness
and a recommended course of treatment. Just ask any family physician.
It drives them nuts. (Google, doctors will tell you, is not a complete
replacement for medical school.)
Similarly, when was the last time you bought a car without completely researching it online?
In an age where we have access to everything, more and more people
are self-directing their spirituality…for better or for worse.
Similarly, another characteristics of the post-modern mind is a declining trust of and reliance on institutions.
The church in many people’s minds is seen as an institution.
I don’t actually believe that’s what a church is. I think it’s a
movement…not an institution. But many churches behave like an
institution, and the post-modern mind instinctively moves away from it
as a result.
8. Failure to see a Direct Benefit
People always make time for the things they value most. If they’re not making time for church, that tells you something.
Even among people who say their love the church and who say they love your church,
if declining attendance is an issue, chances are it’s because they
don’t see a direct benefit. They don’t see the value in being there week
That could be because there isn’t much value (gut check). Or it could be because there is value that they simply don’t see.
Either way, failure to see a direct benefit always results in declining engagement.
So what are you doing or not doing that leaves people feeling like there’s not that much value? People make time for what they value most. If people don’t make time for church…take note.
9. Valuing Attendance over Engagement
I’ll talk about this more in the podcast interviews and in the next posts, but when someone merely attends church, the likelihood of showing up regularly or even engaging their faith decreases over time.
At our church, I find our most engaged people—people who serve, give,
invite and who are in a community group—are our most frequent
More and more as a leader, I value engagement over attendance.
Ironically, if you value attendance over engagement, you will see declining attendance.Ironically, if you value attendance over engagement, you will see declining attendance.
10. A massive Culture Shift
All of these trends witness to something deeper. Our culture is shifting. Seismically.
Church leaders who fail to recognize this will not be able to change rapidly enough to respond to the shifts that are happening.
Change is unkind to the unprepared, so prepare.
by Carey Neuhoff